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Good evening, and welcome to a live summer broadcast of the Londinium Chronicles. Germanicus and I are here, holding down our post at the wine bar by the Thames. The families have gone home, but the centurions have gathered early tonight because they want our verdict on the shifting tides of global conflict: the fragile disruptions and ceasefires in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon, and the increasingly effective, deadly drone contest between Russia and Ukraine.

Tonight, we turn our focus to the stark reality of the "new American way of war"—a drastic departure from the days of national mobilization, toward an era of detached, performative, and increasingly fragile imperial conflict. As we close, we'll reflect on the summer of 1863 and the three bloody days at Gettysburg. Set against that sacred ground of total human sacrifice, today's paralyzed empire comes into harsh focus: true peace will remain out of reach in the Middle East so long as the Imperator stays whipsawed—paralyzed from withdrawal by the twin threats of domestic electoral suicide and the historical disgrace of imperial defeat.

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Good day. This is Londinium, 92 A.D. A spring evening has gone into summer; it is the first day of summer in North America. Here in Londinium, we are in our minority-stake wine bar by the Thames. It is a calm summer evening, though the traffic on the Thames is very heavy. People are going to the theater tonight—good for them. I hope we can get there, but it is going to be crowded.

We turn now to the threat in the 21st century caused by the breakdown of order in the Middle East. The reason I bring us together today is that several days ago, Germanicus dropped by and left us with two questions that he is going to address tonight. Before I raise the questions, I will read the headlines from the 21st century. Reuters right now: "Trump threatens Iran with fresh strikes as Vance attends talks." The subhead notes that a memorandum of understanding on a path to end the war calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran reimposed its blockade on Saturday after accusing Israel of crimes in Lebanon. Right now, we are not certain of the talks in Switzerland, where the Vice President is said to be. We are certain that the Strait of Hormuz is declared by the Iranians to be shut. We do not know the fate of the ships in the Strait of Hormuz, nor do we know the posture of the U.S. Navy; these things are not included in the headlines. There has also been news out of London that the Iranian delegation has walked out of the talks. It is late at night there; they could merely be going back to their hotels to return to the conversation in the morning. In other words, the sum of this is uncertainty in all directions. There is nothing fixed. The memo of understanding from last week may or may not be in place. It is not a treaty; it is not anything approaching a document that you can count on. It is an intention.

Germanicus, you left us with two questions on Friday. The first one talks about embracing the joys that you can find in defeat. And the second one: what happens if you do not find the joy in defeat? What is the road that you are on? The stage is yours, Germanicus. These are weighty matters when it comes to the enmity between Iran and its neighborhood. Good evening.

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Today, we are entertaining our retired centurion friends who have come to listen to us for another lesson on why the Roman institutions of 92 AD survive and prosper in the year 2026. The United States of America is the inheritor of these institutions—if they can keep them. Right now, however, there are doubts about whether the United States remains adequate to its Roman heritage, which dictates rules such as: never turn your back on the enemy.

In any event, we are exploring war and peace today. Germanicus has introduced us to the American way of war over the last several weeks, and we will continue that conversation because there are important—and not altogether positive—differences between the Roman way of war and the American way of war.

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It’s a beautiful spring evening. It has been warm for several days. The Thames is calm, tranquil even. And we’re looking to philosophize about the 21st century, which is in need of some philosophy, some irony.

The Imperator is inadequate to the task. He wasn’t elected to be ironic. At the same time, the opposition, such as it is—and it’s difficult to call it Republican; you’d say the opposition is just whatever comes along that raises money—is not an ironic creature. So, we will provide what we can. This D-Day, we can. Eighty-two years ago today, the 7th of June, the American, Canadian, British, French, and Polish armies were resupplying on the beach.

The German army, with its attendant allies—Romanians, Poles, Ukrainians—were preparing to counterattack. That was the German style: once hit, counterattack. However, they were not going to counterattack with their heavy Panzer divisions; they were going to counterattack with a light one. They had the 12th and the 21st. The 12th was an SS Panzer Division, first-rate, but it was not part of the initial plan.

The Allies had great expectation to take Caen, the big city along the Normandy front, in the first hours. That was the idea that Montgomery put in front of Eisenhower. Well, not only did they not take Caen in the first hours, it was nearly 60 days before Caen fell. So we’re dug in now in Normandy, 82 years ago today. And the battle was in the balance.

The reason I’m making a point of it is that we know the outcome was victory. But every victory has a falling away, and we’re now in that pattern of falling away from the victory of 1944.

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Today, we are turning to something you previewed during our conversation on air last Friday. You made a guest appearance to talk about the American way of war—and how it has been failing America, again and again, since 1945.

Germanicus has brought forth themes that bridge his favorites, the Greeks, with his deep knowledge of the Romans. I have done what I can to prepare for this over the last few days by reading and talking to a classicist about Sparta and Athens—the two big dogs stepping into the ring to fight. But there were other city-states in Greece, as you know, that entered into that same contest, aligning with either Athens or Sparta. We are talking about the fifth and fourth centuries BCE, right before Rome emerged as a global power. Rome existed, having shed its kingships by that point, but the authority for classical storytelling remained squarely within the contest between Athens, Sparta, and to a certain extent, the Persians. It is a joy to read about how the Persians manipulated those Greek cities.

What is so old-fashioned about this is that it is the exact same story we see playing out today?

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We're going to take on Persia, known as Parthia in those days, known as Iran in the 21st century.

We're going to take on Russia, known as the Soviets in the 20th century and as the Russians today.

And we're going to take on Britain—Britain as the world power, Britain as the precedent for American power.

Once upon a time, all roads led to Windsor Castle, in a grand ballroom celebrating the victories of the British legions. We're going to reflect on that.

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Germanicus and I have been exchanging thoughts these last few hours about the Roman way of war compared to the American way of war—in particular, the rise and fall of the American way.

What makes the present circumstances of the so-called Iran war so frustrating? Is it that it's so ineffective, marginal, and ignored by the news gatherers? It is treated almost as a bother rather than an existential crisis for America. It might as well be a story about a lack of hotel space in London to celebrate an occasion.

How did it come to pass that we no longer hang on every moment of the American way of war?

Well, Germanicus has some very helpful thoughts, and then we will turn to the story of the present administration and how it represents nothing that we find significant.

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We're here in 92 A.D., reflecting on the troubles of the 21st century. Germanicus and I have had conversations these last weeks about the Emperor, who is troubled, falls asleep in meetings, is not well, and often says things that are inappropriate or completely discontinuous, suggestive of age and exhaustion and bad luck.

Sometimes as you age, all things don't come evenly. One 79-year-old is not the same as another 79-year-old. So given that, and given that we've had the experience of Tiberius—and what we have now is a sort of Tiberius and Nero combination, which is odd—we're dealing with it.

We're going to address the 21st century from the point of view of architecture and news.

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It is 92 AD and a beautiful spring evening. Cool, bright sunshine; the clouds laden with rain, but not tonight. The flowers of May are here, along with the pollen count, sneezing across the whole landscape of Londinium. Crossing here from my home on the other side of the Thames, I was reminded: you know, it really is a beautiful world. Just gorgeous off the Thames—the sunlight, the clouds, and what is going to happen here for the next 2,000 years.

I welcome my friend, colleague, and confidant, Germanicus. He joins me as the centurions are coming in for their generous cups of wine that we provide. You know, we do have good vineyards here; that warming trend that happens in the 11th century also happened in the first century AD.

Indeed, we raise our glasses.

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For the Roman Empire, as it is for the 21st century, as it was for the Pharaohs and the Hittites, there seems to be something about the geography from what was then Anatolia to the Nile. Something in that geography suggests nobody’s going to get along here for very long. We’ll continue to tussle—3,400 years of conflict.

However, for the Centurions who served there, they’re very glad to be here in Londinium, very far from Rome. We don’t worry—well, sometimes we worry that the walls have ears—but by the time information got to Rome, it would be out of date. So we don’t worry too much. We are careful, however, when we speak of our emperor, Domitian; we hardly speak of him, actually. We just know what everybody knows: the Senate is unhappy with him.

In the 21st century, the emperor—which is called the president in the American Empire parlance—that emperor is spoken of routinely, daily, and is a dramatic player. As emperors go, first-rate drama, matching up with our Nero, we’re told. Once upon a time, Germanicus and I were old enough to remember the time of Nero. He was a very young man, given to dramatic outbursts and violence, and the memory of Nero comes up again and again when dealing with the 21st century.

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We’re in Londinium, 92 AD, springtime. The centurions are already in place. Germanicus is early. I am late to gathering. We all have our cups of wine, and we are faced with a task that we don’t relish, which is looking at the chaos in America in the 21st century. Last week I thought we were too gloomy. I was hoping for a repair job this week. Not going to happen.

The Emperor is routinely regarded as unfit by many members of the major commentary. Nothing partisan about them. Only as good as your commentary at the moment, and ours in many languages regard the Emperor as unfit. Do they have an alternative? No, that’s not what I’m observing. I observe the unfit part. I read the columns; I recommend the FT, the WSJ—certainly go overseas.

Don’t get bogged down in partisanship here in America, where your paycheck is in part derived from which side you’re on. Go overseas and read, because the effect of what’s going on, in the Emperor’s opinion, is being felt by our allies and adversaries more acutely than America feels it at home.

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The Romans were never successful in cracking Persian intransigence—there has been no conqueror from the West in Persia for 2,500 years. Alexander got there, and then he died mysteriously in Babylon—always a puzzle. What is important here is that the tangle with the Persian Empire is not finished. The word “ceasefire” itself tells you there is more to come. Negotiations between the Empire and the Persian leadership—called Iranian these days—were not successful in finding a way to work together.

And so, right now, there are more threats from the Emperor and more remarks of confidence from Tehran. There is a waiting going on in America and the Western trading markets for what comes next. We are aware that the price of a barrel of oil is going to stay elevated for some time, not only because of the conflict but because the supply chain is getting backed up and won’t easily resolve itself.

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We know we're in a crisis mode because we're all relaxed. And that's the best condition when you're in a crisis mode. I present what we have for information from the Emperor.

Within these last hours, the Emperor has issued a threat to the IRGC, which is the state within a state now in charge of the defense of and maintaining the credibility of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the _____ Strait, you crazy _____, or you'll be living in ____- JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP

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We have concerns about the American empire, which at this point has reached a critical turning point.

Not the “end of everything” critical, but critical in that it can go badly, or it can go very badly. I am reminded of the choices that were poorly decided at the end of the Vietnam War.

Those decisions led to the catastrophe of the Killing Fields of Cambodia and a breakdown of confidence in the states of Southeast Asia these many decades later. It is not always obvious to see, but millions of people lost their lives because of poor decisions made by the American empire at the end of the Vietnam conflict.

Could that happen again? It is unknown. That is why Germanicus is here.

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We started last week with things going awry with the American Republic in the 21st century. So, gentlemen, find a seat, please.

Germanicus was able to join me for a few moments two days ago. Speaking to the audience in the 21st century, he started down the path of understanding how confusing the events out of the Middle East are right now.

For example, I’m told reliably that there are 3,200 ships of all kinds trapped in the Gulf. Can’t get out. That isn’t just all tankers, that’s freighters, container ships. There’s so many ships trapped. There’s a shortage of containers worldwide, and the prices have gone up fourfold in the last week. What’s trapped there is—it’s hard to account for the scale of it, but that’s how supply chains work.

That’s one little detail of this conflict in which escalation is underway, and Germanicus started to explain the escalation on Friday. It’s the same direction, but more so 48 hours later. Because what was a rumor of war a week ago—that is the Marines being asked to take over Kharg Island—is now in the headlines out of London. The whole story is the enemy gets a vote, and the enemy is voting.

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Gentlemen, we have the update. It’s not profoundly different from Friday: more and more death and destruction raining down from the sky.

We are, however, going to address this in terms of our learning from the first century A.D. and our education about the first century B.C.E.—the Roman civil wars of Sulla, Caesar, and Octavian.

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We are currently witnessing, in real time, global reports on the escalating crisis facing America and its European allies: the so-called “Iran War.” In the United Kingdom, the press—most notably the London Telegraph—has already begun branding this conflict “Trump’s War.”

This is a war launched, we believe, out of a preemptive fear of Iranian aggression against the United States. I hesitate only because the justifications for this conflict remain varied and fluid. Historically, it is rare to speak of America starting a war. The traditional American narrative is one of response and reaction—a nation that defends itself, pushes back, and brings wars to a close.

To see the U.S. take the initiative in starting a conflict is highly unusual. While there have been smaller instances of this in the past, a mobilization of this magnitude is unprecedented. The true origins and motivations of this shift will likely be debated by historians for the next hundred years.

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We’ve gathered by the Thames because of the alarming news from the 21st century. Our centurions are crashing in; they’ve heard the news as well.

The United States—our inheritors—are at war with Persia. That gets the attention of Romans. Always has, always will.

Germanicus and I will try to avoid the irony. That’s about us, but it’s probably impossible. We’ll try and be as lighthearted as you know us to be.

War with Persia, though, makes us nervous.

A second glass of wine, please.

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In the 21st century, the Americans surround Iran with a fleet and warplanes that can render the rubble, rubble for days, for weeks. Gathering of eagles plus all of the guns and all of the men necessary to reduce Iran.

We know it’s Persia. We know that country has been fighting for 2500 years—Rome, Greece. Every manner of empire between Rome and Greece has taken a shot at Persia. It’s still standing. We know this.

So I present to you: Sparta versus Argos. Argos is going to claim it wins because it has two left. Sparta is going to claim it wins because it was the only one on the battlefield. And both sides will then go to war and reduce each other, is the fairy tale.

How do you see the Persians versus the Americans in the 21st century?

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FDR pulled off a switch-a-roo in front of the American people, and it didn’t bother anybody that he spent all of the prep for the war pounding Europe. And then suddenly it’s the Pacific that attacks to us.

It was a two-front war right away. It occurs to me that this is a useful analogy to the situation that the US has faced for some years a two-front war. Is it the People’s Republic of China that is threatening our freedom and the freedom of our allies in the Pacific? Or is it Russia, the Russian Federation and its allies threatening our allies and us in Europe?

And we fight this war first, or that war first? How do we make a choice? Have we got enough money? And the American people understand that the choice is ready-made for you: I give you a two-front war.

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