We begin with the vote for 2024.
Germanicus and I met with some colleagues on the night of the election, and we talked about what we were witnessing. When we stopped talking and went on to bed (because it was going to be late), the Red candidate was ahead in important states—Pennsylvania, for example, more than 100,000 votes ahead. So we declared it a razor thin victory for the Red Team.
However, it turned out the next morning that the Red Team was ahead in all seven swing states and in addition was doing very well in the Blue states.
In 2020, Connecticut had a 22% gap between the Blue vote and the Red vote. Here in 2024, it's an 11 point gap. In other words, it cut in half in one cycle, which is unprecedented and dramatic.
This was a thumping defeat for the Blue Team, and the Red Team is now in charge not only of the executive and the Senate but there's reason to believe it will also hold the House. This was no one's prediction from the major polls in major newspapers, the major networks, the cable networks—no one's prediction the day before the vote.
Is there one explanation or two explanations that make sense to us of why the American people voted in this direction? And that not one of the very well paid “experts” on how America votes understood where we were going?
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