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The Imperator's Dilemma: Embracing Defeat in the Middle East

Gaius and Germanicus explore how the U.S. can mimic Nixon’s pivot to China and turn a massive financial concession to Iran into a triumphant, world-altering peace deal.

Salvē!

This episode of Londinium Chronicles was broadcast live yesterday on YouTube, X, and here on Substack.

Join us this Sunday at 6PM EST on Substack for another live broadcast.


Good day. This is Londinium, 92 A.D. A spring evening has gone into summer; it is the first day of summer in North America. Here in Londinium, we are in our minority-stake wine bar by the Thames. It is a calm summer evening, though the traffic on the Thames is very heavy. People are going to the theater tonight—good for them. I hope we can get there, but it is going to be crowded.

We turn now to the threat in the 21st century caused by the breakdown of order in the Middle East. The reason I bring us together today is that several days ago, Germanicus dropped by and left us with two questions that he is going to address tonight. Before I raise the questions, I will read the headlines from the 21st century. Reuters right now: "Trump threatens Iran with fresh strikes as Vance attends talks." The subhead notes that a memorandum of understanding on a path to end the war calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran reimposed its blockade on Saturday after accusing Israel of crimes in Lebanon. Right now, we are not certain of the talks in Switzerland, where the Vice President is said to be. We are certain that the Strait of Hormuz is declared by the Iranians to be shut. We do not know the fate of the ships in the Strait of Hormuz, nor do we know the posture of the U.S. Navy; these things are not included in the headlines. There has also been news out of London that the Iranian delegation has walked out of the talks. It is late at night there; they could merely be going back to their hotels to return to the conversation in the morning. In other words, the sum of this is uncertainty in all directions. There is nothing fixed. The memo of understanding from last week may or may not be in place. It is not a treaty; it is not anything approaching a document that you can count on. It is an intention.

Germanicus, you left us with two questions on Friday. The first one talks about embracing the joys that you can find in defeat. And the second one: what happens if you do not find the joy in defeat? What is the road that you are on? The stage is yours, Germanicus. These are weighty matters when it comes to the enmity between Iran and its neighborhood. Good evening.


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